Workshop: Scenario Management - From Strategic Foresight to Future Robust Decisions
Abstract
Due to growing uncertainty and complexity, companies can no longer strive for single trends to explain the future of markets, industries and general side conditions. Instead they have to develop alternative future scenarios – followed by the processes of scenario-interpretation and scenario application. The workshop includes the following steps/phases:
- Introduction into “scenario thinking” and basics of Scenario-Management
- The three steps of scenario development – based on the example of future mobility in urban regions
- Exercise: Future-option thinking and scenario construction
- Scenario-interpretation: Communication and assessment of future scenarios plus consequence-analysis
- From scenarios to strategies (including strategy scenarios)
- Scenarios as a tool for strategic intelligence and early warning processes
- Scenario processes in companies and public institutions
Video Overview
Key topics
- Learning how to develop future scenarios (methods, processes, examples)
- Testing the core steps of the methodology in an exercise
- Getting an overview about the interpretation and use of scenarios in strategy-, innovation- and early warning-processes (including examples)
- Discussion the possibilities for implementing scenarios in different organizational settings.
Speaker profile
Dr. Alexander Fink is founder and member of the Executive Board of ScMI Scenario Management International AG, Paderborn. He studied Industrial Engineering and Management at the University of Paderborn and received his doctor’s degree at the Heinz Nixdorf Institute. He is the author or co-author of several German books, among them “Scenario-Management – From strategic foresight to future-robust decisions” (Campus, 2016) and “Handbook Future Management” (2nd edition Campus, 2011). Additionally he writes for numerous German and international journals. In 1998 he received the “Prize for Outstanding Paper” in "Technological Forecasting and Social Change”. In 2013 he was awarded with the “Prize of German market research” for selected scenario developments. Alexander Fink has a long experience in strategic consulting of industrial and service companies as well as public organizations. His main emphases are scenario planning, visionary strategy development and the integration of early warning and scenarios in the management and planning process. He is a popular speaker on national and international events and conferences dealing with future and strategic matters.
Kim Miyanji is consultant at ScMI Scenario Management International AG. He studied International Business Studies (Bachelor of Arts) at the University of Paderborn with the main emphasis of Economics. Later he added Business and Human Resource Education focussing on personal- and organisational development (Master of Science) as well as International Economics and Management with special emphasis on Asian Studies in Business and Economics (Master of Science). Within the scope of his academic education he studied in Spain, China and Canada. Since 2012 he worked in different national and international scenario projects. In addition he holds lectureships in Strategic Management at Paderborn University and University of Applied Sciences Lemgo.